In the history of bear market bottoms, the recovery is ALWAYS questioned for months with tons of well-founded convincing naysayers. Over time, the negative nellies concede it's over, and markets return to their normal upward trajectory. Could this be that? Maybe. But count us in the 'naysays' camp after this market rally. We turned much more positive at the beginning of July in our outlook for the 2nd half (HERE). This was predicated on a few things, including the degree of the drawdown, the view that inflation would begin to soften, and that recession fears were a bit overblown. But this advance does appear too far and too fast.
Short covering combined with some softening inflation data and improved economic data, which allayed recession fears during the less liquid summer months, drove this rally. And now, the market is gambling on a perfect future. Think about it.
The S&P is down 11% from a high that was a bit of a speculative peak to round out the +28% appreciation in 2021. Down only 11% with inflation softening but still a risk. Down only 11% with earnings revisions turning negative, the Fed is still on hiking autopilot and, despite a few
recent economic data points, recession risk is still real.
This market appears to be sitting on an open-ended straight, hoping for a good river card. Maybe inflation will come down fast enough, allowing the Fed to stop raising rates. Maybe yields will stabilize, the economy will have a soft landing and earnings growth won’t slow materially. Or maybe this market rally just keeps going higher on short covering of bearish bets. It could happen, but the probability does not look great.
This has been the summer bounce rally. Market Ethos June 20th:
“Our base case remains that as the economic data softens, the inflation fears will too, leading to a market bounce. But we could also fast forward to recession fears as earnings/margins come under pressure. Valuations are increasingly providing some margin of safety, but this will continue to be a challenging year.”
That valuation safely margin has certainly been reduced. In early July, the S&P 500 was back down to its long-term average of 16x forward estimates. Now it is back up to 18x, not expensive, but if you are less confident about the sustainability of the ‘E,’ certainly less safe.
— Craig Basinger is the Chief Market Strategist at Purpose Investments
Source: Charts are sourced to Bloomberg L.P. and Purpose Investments Inc.
The contents of this publication were researched, written and produced by Purpose Investments Inc. and are used by Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. for information purposes only.
This report is authored by Craig Basinger, Chief Market Strategist Purpose Investments Inc.
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